戳破戴卓爾傳説

我也在St. Louis Fed的數據庫看同樣的資料(法國也是我用來比較的首選),但Paul Krugman比我快一步:

040813krugman6-blog480040813krugman7-blog480

So, a real turnaround. Was it the Iron Lady wot did it?

Well, there’s a bit of a problem: Thatcher came to power in 1979, and imposed a radical change in policy almost immediately. But the big improvement in British performance doesn’t really show in the data until the mid-1990s. Does she get credit for a reward so long delayed?

Anyway, I guess there is a case that the Thatcher changes in taxes, labor regulation, etc. created a more flexible economy, which made the good years under Blair possible. But it’s an awfully long lag. And there’s another possibility. For what happened in the 90s that arguably redounded very much to Britain’s benefit? Why, the rise of fancy finance — which was a huge boon to the country that contains the City.

這個故事教訓我們,坊間上理念、結論,尤其是與經濟相關的,很多時候都是錯的。

更新:

來自《主場新聞》,The Guardian 有更多戳破戴卓爾傳説的數據。

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