賽浦路斯的啓示

Paul Krugman:

Let me make a broader point: we’ve now seen three island nations around Europe become huge international banking hubs relative to their GDPs, then get into crisis because their domestic economies don’t have the resources to bail out those metastasized banking systems if something goes wrong. This strongly suggests, to me at least, that we have a fundamental problem with the whole architecture (to use the preferred fancy word) of international finance.

But euro-area deposit insurance doesn’t seem to be in the cards — and anyway, there are plenty of other potential Cypruses out there.

All of which raises the question, is the era of free capital movement just a bubble, fated to end one of these years, maybe soon?

我暫時沒有時間去查看香港金融業規模對GDP的比例,但我相信它會跟上述島國差不多或者更大。

hkca假如泡沫爆破,香港將會欠人一身債,而它的最大債主應是中國。出現這狀況,它必然要向外人借錢還債,這個外人又必然是中國。「一國兩制」到今天已經名存實亡,因爲中共已經買起了香港。

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