預算案預測

1. 會推出新一批ibond,發行量會比上批較多,但不會是我所希望的大量或形成ibond常規發行機制。

2. 在退稅(坊間所言的「派錢」)上又會有大規模爭論。

3. 不會有「穩定」樓市的新政策。

4. 來年財政收支預測依然是赤字,但實際上會出現大量盈餘(假如樓市不爆)。

5. 會提出政府花了多少多少錢興建房屋作爲政績;會以政府需為建房需預留多少錢所以不退稅或少退稅。

6. 不會討論聯係匯率。

7. 政府的最大財政收入來源依然是賣地。

如讀者對預算案有什麽感興趣議題,不妨留言,我可以嘗試作出預測。

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2 則回應給 預算案預測

  1. Bill 說:

    montwithin,

    Can we introduce Goods and Services Tax like Australia but exempting more daily necessities so that the low income earners have less impact on their daily expenditure?

    • 山中 說:

      In principle, yes we can and should, but there must be some prerequisites before est. such tax. VAT or GST are regressive in general, so we need a good system to protect people with low income. In western countries, VAT and GST are used to pay for the social safety net and related services, like health-care, education etc.; it is by this kind of redistribution we can justify the collection of such tax. Furthermore, almost all western countries require their citizens to fill-out tax returns, and it is by this system the governments returns excessive surpluses to their people in accordance to their income levels. VAT would be an unfair system without the above.

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