風暴確認

話剛說完,不同人士也發出同樣的預警。

Paul Krugman:

Actually, if he’s right about the demographic underpinnings, there’s a time bomb lurking in the system quite aside from his concerns about inflation running too hot or too cold: eventually, and as I understand it fairly soon, those older Chinese who have been frantically saving because they don’t expect enough grandchildren to support them will become net dissavers, pulling money out of the banks to live on. And then, if his basic story is right, the whole system implodes.

John Hempton:

Low Chinese inflation rates will mean reasonable returns on savings for Chinese lower and middle income savers. Good news for peasants perhaps.

But that changing division of the spoils of economic progress will destroy the Chinese establishment (an establishment that relies on a peculiar and arguably unfair division of the spoils). The SOEs will not be able to pay positive real returns to support that new division of spoils. The peasants can only receive positive real returns if the SOEs can pay them – and paying them is inconsistent with looting.

If the SOEs cannot pay then the banks are in deep trouble too.

All because the inflation rate is dropping. Maybe they can stop it dropping. The Chinese establishment has a vested interest in getting the inflation rate up in China. Because if they don’t all hell will break loose.

Unless the Chinese can get the inflation rate up expect a revolution.

關於通脹問題,中國經濟的最大矛盾就是它要不就是高通脹,要不就是通縮(增長跟不上通脹其實就是通縮)。高通脹是因爲這是銀行業(息差)、國有企業(低匯價)、地產發展商/金融業(資產價格)的生存之道。高通脹有利於政權與其盜賊網絡獲得利益,但不利於普羅百姓。中央前期提高利率、打壓樓市的主要原因是因爲高通脹動搖了它在民衆心目中的合法性。問題是這一著也動搖盜賊網絡對政權的支持,也動搖了經濟增長,因爲中國這個經濟體倚靠盜賊團體的經濟活動爲生。這是現有體制不能解開的死結。

其實只要看清事實就不難發現時中國的體制並不能承受任何規模的波動,崩潰只是時間問題。

http://wp.me/pXZbk-K3

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