阿根廷也(曾經)歡迎IMF支持阿根廷聯繫匯率

報道指:「曾俊華歡迎基金組織代表團繼續支持聯繫匯率制度,並指他們沒有任何打算改變現時的匯率制度」。不知道財政司有沒有讀過近十年世界經濟歷史,不知道他知不知道世上有個地方叫阿根廷、它的聯繫匯率制度與2000經濟崩潰的關係。

Brad Setser:

For fourteen of the twenty years preceding Argentina’s crisis in 2000, its economic policy operated within an IMF program. Even after the initial success of its currency board arrangement and debt restructuring in the early 1990s, Argentina relied on the IMF’s endorsement and occasional financing to navigate choppy international markets. As the IMF came under criticism for its handling of Asia’s financial crisis, it set aside early doubts about Argentina’s currency board arrangement and embraced the country as a symbol of the success of IMF policy advice.

…the IMF got both the economics and politics wrong by continuing to support Argentina’s attempts to cling to its peg and avoid a restructuring through 2001. In 2001, the IMF bet that continued support for convertibility would be less risky politically, even if the economics did not work. However, the IMF underestimated the extent to which it would be blamed for backing a failed system.

看起來IMF的支持是「死亡之吻」。稍微懂點經濟學的都應該知道聯繫匯率、IMF教條、華盛頓共識的問題。噢,我忘了曾俊華(建築學學士、雙語教育碩士、公共行政碩士)與陳德霖(社會學學士)都不是經濟學家。爲什麽我們社會的最高決策是由一群無知蠢驢所主宰?

http://wp.me/pXZbk-Eg

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