OK,也來談一談降級

交通銀行首席經濟及策略師羅家聰表示(括號紅字是我的評論):

調低美國信貸評級可能會推高利率(???什麽原因???日本2002年降級,但債券利率往下跌),借貸成本上升,令企業融資有困難,更可能會出現倒閉潮(所以美國一直維持0利率,TIPS現在是負利率)。

羅家聰又預期,為免通脹加劇(什麽通脹),美國未必會再推出另一輪量化寬鬆政策,華府能否加強削赤成為關鍵(對什麽成關鍵?經濟?現時的削赤方案等於自殺)。他又說,股市及債市的波動將更大,預期資金會流向黃金及樓市等商品市場(唉,美國樓市現在處於歷史低谷有資金流到美國樓市也不失為一件好事;問題是爲什麽持續零利率沒有帶動樓市?答案是缺乏需求。黃金是規模很少的市場,不會影響通脹:見這裡這裡),通脹會持續升溫(什麽通脹?no, not there, no, no, just fucking no要說香港通脹的話,香港的通脹是因爲港元與美元挂鈎)。

有這樣的人當首席經濟師,世界不可能不發生經濟危機。

長話短説,降級對經濟並沒有任何實際影響與意義,它也不是預測經濟發展的良好指標。應擔心的是經濟持續衰退、失業持續上升。這是因爲美國、歐盟國家、中國都採用了錯誤的經濟政策。

唉,還是交給Paul Krugman:

Just to make it perfect, it turns out that S&P got the math wrong by $2 trillion, and after much discussion conceded the point — then went ahead with the downgrade.

More than that, everything I’ve heard about S&P’s demands suggests that it’s talking nonsense about the US fiscal situation. The agency has suggested that the downgrade depended on the size of agreed deficit reduction over the next decade, with $4 trillion apparently the magic number. Yet US solvency depends hardly at all on what happens in the near or even medium term: an extra trillion in debt adds only a fraction of a percent of GDP to future interest costs, so a couple of trillion more or less barely signifies in the long term. What matters is the longer-term prospect, which in turn mainly depends on health care costs.

So what was S&P even talking about? Presumably they had some theory that restraint now is an indicator of the future — but there’s no good reason to believe that theory, and for sure S&P has no authority to make that kind of vague political judgment.

In short, S&P is just making stuff up — and after the mortgage debacle, they really don’t have that right.

So this is an outrage — not because America is A-OK, but because these people are in no position to pass judgment.

http://wp.me/pXZbk-uN

廣告
本篇發表於 經濟學, 政治與經濟 並標籤為 , , , , , , 。將永久鏈結加入書籤。

發表迴響

在下方填入你的資料或按右方圖示以社群網站登入:

WordPress.com Logo

您的留言將使用 WordPress.com 帳號。 登出 / 變更 )

Twitter picture

您的留言將使用 Twitter 帳號。 登出 / 變更 )

Facebook照片

您的留言將使用 Facebook 帳號。 登出 / 變更 )

Google+ photo

您的留言將使用 Google+ 帳號。 登出 / 變更 )

連結到 %s