對世界經濟無語

交由Paul Krugman說:

OK, OK, we always need to bear in mind Paul Samuelson’s line about how the stock market had predicted nine of the last five recessions. Still, the markets do seem to be telling us a couple of things:

1. The world looks a lot more like the way it’s viewed by the Krugman/Thoma/DeLong axis (hey, I like it) than as viewed by, say, the WSJ editorial page.

2. Policy makers have been worrying about the wrong things, obsessing over deficits when the real problem was lack of growth.

There are intimations that this could turn out to be more than a mere market plunge; European stresses are starting to make some nasty financial ripples that suggest a possible mini-Lehman event, although I think — I hope — governments and central banks will head this off. But if you had any doubts that we were on the wrong track, this should resolve them.

但世界依然有這樣的苯蛋認爲加息(!!)能提升就業率。連最簡單的經濟學道理都不懂。低利率並不能增加就業是因爲利率不夠低。實際利率的平衡點需要達到負數才能使經濟回到充分就業水平,但由央行、銀行決定名義利率不可能是負數,所以貨幣政策的影響力的已經用盡。貨幣政策的影響力用盡並不代表貨幣政策本身無效,只代表力量不夠大。低利率本身防止了進一步的失業。

這種笨蛋連利率是什麽都不知道就說什麽「資金回複它應有的成本」這類蠢話。資本成本增加等於融資成本,貸款成本、投資成本與風險增加,引致經濟活動的減少。在經濟危機中增加息等於是自殺;這也是Hoover在大蕭條前期所做的蠢事,結果經濟危機一發不可收拾。

情況就如一個飯量三升的人抱怨吃了一升飯吃不飽,旁邊一個蠢蛋就建議「既然吃飯吃不飽,為什麽還要吃飯?你嘗試不吃飯看看會不會飽。」聼從這種建議的人就會活活餓死。世界經濟就是聼了這種蠢蛋的建議才一直走不出危機。

我不只對世界經濟無語,對世界充滿蠢蛋更是無語。

http://wp.me/pXZbk-uJ

This entry was posted in Awesome Stuff, 經濟學, 政治與經濟 and tagged , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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