Canadian Election: Post-mortem

Stochastic Democracy has a really good piece on how they produced reliable forecast on the seat distribution. It is a win for science, and we are moving closer to having psychohistory.

I don’t think that’s a win for Canadian though, as the election shows a split in the middle, the demise of the centralist party, and a majority conservative parliament. Would “Conservative" Canada follow the austerity trend and begin to dismantle the welfare-state? Would NDP, as the single largest opposition, be able to check the government and prevent a swing to the Right? Or would it just create an upsurge to the Left and cementing NDP as a serious contestant at the federal level? Does this election represent a generational/ideological split among the Canadian population?

We will have some answers in the immediate future, provided that the world survive the on-going economic crisis and 2012. I am not so hopeful overall.

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